August is fantasy football szn. We've posted 42 videos on our YouTube Channel since the NFL Draft has ended, and I've written 24 columns right here on Underdog Network. But sometimes we just want the answers to the test, which is why I'll be updating these August 2024 fantasy football rankings as often as I can. If you want more breakdowns, I'd recommend these videos and columns:
Preseason Week 1 Recap - Stock Up vs Down
Reacting To NFL Training Camp News
8 Things I'm Doing In Fantasy Drafts
What Has Worked In Best Ball Every Year
Updated on August 12th... The ADP is based on the starting draft position on Underdog Fantasy. 2023 and 2022 Finishes are my fantasy points over replacement metrics based on Underdog Fantasy's half PPR best ball scoring, which factors in weekly upside. If you're uploading these rankings to Underdog, you might have to change "ID" to "id". Of course, do not draft strictly off these rankings. I upload them to the site as a reference of which players I want to target, but almost all of my selections are within 5ish spots of ADP because I want to draft "my guys" at good prices. That's how your player takes actually get paid off. Please do the same, whether it's with these rankings or your own.
1. WR1 CeeDee Lamb - He finished as the WR1 overall in man coverage composite score and had the most expected fantasy points based on his usage. Nothing has really changed heading into his age-25 season. Only CMC, Kyren Williams, and Tyreek Hill finished with more fantasy points over replacement per game in 2023. He feels a bit safer than those options, and my teams have looked better with a WR in Round 1 rather than an RB. That breaks the tie with him and the obvious next option:
2. RB1 Christian McCaffrey - He averaged 23.2 half PPR points. The next closest RB, 19.1. That insane gap is why he finished as the most valuable asset last year. Only his age (28) tied with his touch history could prevent him from another monster fantasy season. He has plenty of room to decline before the next tier of RBs are within striking distance. The only thing to worry about is this "minor" calf injury hanging out for longer than it's invited.
3. WR2 Justin Jefferson - In healthy games, Jefferson was the WR1 overall in half PPR points per game (20.3) on WR2 overall fantasy usage. Some of that was with Kirk Cousins. Some of that was with QB play that'll be worse than the combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy this upcoming season. Jefferson's 15.6 expected half PPR points were notably higher than Tyreek Hill's (14.5), Ja'Marr Chase's (12.3), and Amon-Ra St. Brown's (13.6). Let's keep it simple... Oh, and his 4-game sample after returning from injury without Kirk Cousins: 84, 141, 59, and 192 yards with 10+ targets in all. That's a 2,023-yard pace across 17 games.
4. WR3 Tyreek Hill - He's finished as the 3rd and 8th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game under coach Mike McDonald's supervision. The only reason for concern at all would be that this is his age-30 season, but it's not a good reason to fade him after playing like the best WR in the league last year. He's essentially unstoppable on those "cheat motion" plays.
5. RB2 Breece Hall - The Jets were awful late last year, yet Hall posted 22.6, 2.3, 37.1, 23.1, and 26.0 fantasy points in his last five games as the clear bellcow. Nobody stands in his way this year, not even his own knee. Hall has the size and skillset to carry rare volume, and the Jets offense should be respectable, if not quite good. Aaron Rodgers gets on-paper upgrades at LT, LG, RG, RT, and swing tackle. If there's someone who competes with Christian McCaffrey for a "legendary" season, it's Hall.
6. WR4 A.J. Brown - In comparison to DeVonta Smith, Brown was unlucky last year. 88% of Smith's downfield targets were graded as "catchable" per Sports Info Solutions (WR5). That was just 54% for AJB (64th out of 81 qualifiers). That's the difference between Browns' +33% fantasy points over expected in 2022 versus his +20% finish last year. Both are good. One was elite. I'm expecting Jalen Hurts to be healthier and more successful against the blitz with a new offensive coordinator. It'll be a bonus if the Eagles stop Tush Pushing and throw the ball in the red zone more, too.
7. WR5 Ja'Marr Chase - He averaged 86 yards per game as a rookie, 87 as a sophom*ore, then 83 in the games with Burrow last year. Those are one tier below the Lamb/Jefferson/Hill averages, while being closer to Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Chase offers a big-play ceiling that St. Brown can't hit, but I split a tie in favor of AJB because of the slightly concerning Joe Burrow throwing-wrist surgery.
8. WR6 Amon-Ra St. Brown - Even in half PPR, St. Brown was the 8th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game last season. The Lions defense might be better in 2024. The Lions offense could face some naturally regression after balling last season. But nothing has really changed for one of the best zone and underneath targets in the game. It's a miracle that OC Ben Johnson is still with the organization. Shoutout to Dan Campbell.
9. RB3 Bijan Robinson - There are a ton of similarities between Hall and Robinson heading into the year: potential bellcows with QBs coming off torn achilles. But I feel worst about Robinson's goal-line opportunities with Tyler Allgeier lingering. In fact, he had only 2 carries inside the 5-yard line, which was just 18% of the Falcons' attempts down there. The new coaching staff is far more likely to use Robinson in a 3-down role, but I've at least seen it repeatedly with Hall.
10. WR7 Garrett Wilson - He's at 1,225 receiving yards and 7.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
11. RB4 Kyren Williams - He's at 975 rushing yards and 9.5 rushing TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
12. WR8 Puka Nacua - He averaged 18.4 half PPR points without Cooper Kupp healthy, compared to 15.0 with his sidekick playing regular snaps. A similar decrease was shown in his expected half PPR points, too: 15.7 to 12.4 per game. The good news is Nacua is going into his second season while Kupp will be 31 years old and Nacua went bonkers next to Kupp in their 6 final games together (19.1 HPPR on 13.0), including the NFL Playoffs. This late-season stretch is important because that's when the new-look Rams offense began to click with Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams healthy. ESPN's Mina Kimes ranked the Rams as the 2nd-best offense heading into 2024 because of on/off splits with Stafford and Kyren healthy. As for Nacua's individual tape, it's hard to be more impressed with his toughness, zone diagnosis, and footwork near the sideline. He's the real deal, obviously.
13. RB5 Jahmyr Gibbs - He's at 1,225 total yards and 7.5 rushing TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
14. WR9 Jaylen Waddle - The reality is the entire 2nd round is undeserving of their ADPs. Here's where each player finished in fantasy points over replacement per game last year: Garrett Wilson (91st overall), Marvin Harrison Jr. (highest rookie WR ADP of all time), Saquon Barkley (26th overall), Jonathan Taylor (34th overall), Drake London (98th overall), Brandon Aiyuk (28th overall), Davante Adams (33rd overall), Chris Olave (58th overall), Kyren Williams (2nd overall), and De'Von Achane (5th overall)... If you want a WR in Round 2, you are projecting a finish that hasn't happened yet. That's not ideal, but we're all doing it. So who is the best of the worst??? Looking at Waddle's per-game numbers last year is severely underselling his potential. He had 5 games under 66% snaps, but he averaged 81 yards per game in his 9 healthiest games. Those are fringe WR1 numbers without even mentioning the contingent upside if Tyreek Hill were to miss time. On a per-route basis, Waddle was at career-high levels last year, too. His 2.5 yards per route were 8th best in the NFL, and his 26% targets per route is wild next to a bonafide superstar. Waddle is a volatile WR1/2 when healthy with the upside of sneaking into the top-8 range if his luck turns around.
15. WR10 Nico Collins - He's delivered on his developmental, high-upside prospect profile. Collins (6'4"/215 with 4.45 speed) was a top-12 real life receiver last year and was a perfect fit with C.J. Stroud's downfield accuracy and timing. Collins was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL, leading to a wild +46% fantasy points over expected. He primarily did so by winning deep. His +18% completion percentage over expected on his deep targets were 9th best, and those led to multiple long scores. The Texans will have to throw more to justify adding Stefon Diggs this year, but Collins' 2023 tape and 2023 metrics looked much better than Diggs' and the Texans passed way more down the stretch after they figured out just how could Stroud is. Collins was the per-game WR7 last year and is drafted as the WR15 this time around. I'll buy that, especially in best ball.
16. RB6 Jonathan Taylor - He's at 1,075 rushing yards and 9.5 rushing TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
17. WR11 Cooper Kupp - 2023 was the first time Kupp has finished with below-average fantasy points over expected (-6%). He was dealing with a lingering hamstring injury and then suffered a November ankle sprain last year, but this will also be his age-31 season when those injuries seem to bite more often. In the two years prior with Matthew Stafford, however, Kupp was at +40% and 33% fantasy points over expected. An optimistic and arguably reasonable projection would be splitting the difference between 2023 and the two years prior. If so, Kupp is a nice 4th-round selection. He was the per-game WR22 on WR9 usage last season, partially because he scored 1.6 fewer TDs than expected. He's the WR24 on Underdog Fantasy right now.
18. RB7 Saquon Barkley - He's at 1,125 rushing yards and 7.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
19. RB8 De'Von Achane - There have been 533 qualifying RBs since 2018 in my fantasy points over expected model, and Achane's 2023 season was the very best. He scored 5.4 more half PPR points than his usage would indicate, thanks to a ridiculous 5.2 TDs over expected. Achane did so with speed and contact balance, perfectly aligning with coach Mike McDaniels' outside zone and pitch-heavy scheme. His 7.4 yards per carry were the best of any RB since 2000 (min. 100 carries), but that's an unsustainable clip of course. The other 19 RBs to sit above 5.5 YPC watched their average drop by 1.1 yards the following regular season. Only once did a RB in that sample increase their YPC (Jamaal Charles).... All this said, Achane will be a model dunker for a long time in this offense. If he went from 5.4 to 3.0 fantasy points over expected this year while keeping his same usage, Achane still would've been the per-game RB14 last year. There's a chance he sees more volume this year, too, so he looks like a boom-bust low-end RB1, even after factoring in regression.
20. WR12 Brandon Aiyuk - Brandon Aiyuk. He's a consistent model dunker with +14%, +22%, +26%, and +47% fantasy points over expected based on his usage. Aiyuk is an elite downfield player because his route running has improved and he's a fantastic athlete. The 49ers' skill group remains crowded, but if a Deebo trade or just random injuries occur, Aiyuk has the looks of a Round 1 fantasy receiver or at the very least has the looks of a giga spike week receiver. The NFC West offenses look scary and the 49ers' defense isn't as good as it was in their peak, so San Francisco can potentially pass more in 2024 than they have during the Aiyuk era. Volume is the only thing that's held him back so far (WR36 in expected points per game). What if that unexpectedly changes?
21. WR13 Deebo Samuel - He's at 725 receiving yards and 5.5 receiving TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
22. WR14 Davante Adams - 2023 was Adams' first season since 2016 with below-average fantasy points over expected (-8%). In fact, he was above 11% in the previous 7 seasons. Iffy QB play and play-calling were the primary culprits, though neither look promising in 2024 either. Adams had a brutal -9% completion percentage over expected on his deep targets and scored 1.8 fewer TDs than his usage would suggest. Gardner Minshew is only marginally better than what the Raiders' trotted out last year and now Brock Bowers is around for some manufactured touches. Adams is in a tough spot heading into his age-32 season, even if he still looks like a top-12 NFL receiver on tape. He was the WR16 on WR5 usage last year. The primary saving grace could be that new OC Luke Getsy was the pass-game coordinator during Adams' 115- and 123-catch seasons back with the Packers.
23. WR15 Malik Nabers - This is as high as I can rank a rookie WR playing on a team that's 29th in projected points. His college tape and numbers were unbelievably good. Nabers should be one of the best after-catch options in the entire NFL on Day 1. Hopefully the Giants don't completely waste his Day 1 talent. I'm expecting booms and busts.
24. WR16 Drake London - Even a diminished version of Kirk Cousins would be an upgrade for London, who was limited to 98th and 114th overall finishes under run-first play-caller Arthur Smith. New OC Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree, which has adapted over time. In every year, they've been really high in 3-WR sets (typically around 90%) and haven't rotated their skill players. That's good news, but we don't exactly know how much they'll pass the ball, as the Rams have teetered back and fourth in neutral pass rate. I'm expecting league average passing production as a team, with a wider-range of outcomes with Achilles Kirk compared to Matthew Stafford. That brings us to London himself. He's better than his stats, but he may also be capped just outside of the superstar club based on his speed. London can sink his hips as well as any big-bodied receiver, so there's potential for solid volume and red zone grabs. I'd put him just outside the top-12 WR range based on his tape. He was 91st percentile in targets per man coverage route last year. That feels about right.
25. WR17 Marvin Harrison Jr. - He's going to be a great pro long term and even a quality fantasy asset as a rookie, but this is by far the highest a rookie WR has ever gone in drafts and he's still attached to an offense that's 21st in projected points this year in a likely balanced offense. From Week 8 on last year (primarily with Kyler Murray), the Cardinals were 27th in neutral pass rate, which aligns with the roots of the coaching staff (Eagles and Browns). Harrison has to be an absolute star to overcome this average environment at the Round 1/2 turn. Our Underdog Fantasy player projections agree. He's at 1,075.5 receiving yards and 7.5 TDs in Pick'em. Those numbers are closer towards my ranking (WR14 and 20th overall).
26. QB1 Jalen Hurts - Last year's play-calling and Hurts' own leg injury completely tanked the season. Here are some stats to show the obvious dropoffs directly tied to those two problems. Keep in mind, the Eagles now have a new OC in Kellen Moore and Hurts is likely to be healthier in 2024.... And even with those issues last year, Hurts finished as the 38th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game. He was 11th overall in 2022 when things were firing.
Play action per season: 111, 133, then 81!!!
RPO passes per season: 95, 122, then 89!!!
Blitzes faced per season: 124, 172, then 185!!!
Throwaways per season: 22, 23, then 35!!! (because of the blitzes)
Rush yards per game: 52, 50, then 36!!!
Rushes per broken tackle: 15, 21, then 52!!!
27. RB9 Isiah Pacheco - Like I wrote in the Derrick Henry blurb, it's very helpful for your fantasy RBs to play on an elite offense. The Chiefs should return to their elite ways after making two notable additions at receiver, while losing a star cornerback on defense. Pacheco has also earned more trust throughout his career and faces less competition now (remember Jerick McKinnon?). From Week 12 through the Super Bowl, Pacheco averaged 17.6 half PPR points on 18.0 expected half PPR points, which both would've been good for RB3 overall if extrapolated the entire season. He's drafted as the RB14 right now.
This table shows ranks each offense in 2024 projected points, then shows the players' ADPs on Underdog Fantasy. There are some takeaways throughout, but one of them is that the Chiefs are 3rd in projected point yet don't have a player ranked highly. That's probably wrong.
28. RB10 Josh Jacobs - 2023 was a disaster season after holding out through training camp. He scored 4.1 fewer TDs than his usage would expect, leading to -20% fantasy points over expected. That was (by far) his worst of his career. Jacobs was +15% over expected the year prior, so he's been very boom-bust as an individual player. Hence the uncertainty around his 2024 fantasy football ranking. The Packers' scoring environment is just so much better than the Raiders', especially after Jordan Love's late-year breakout. From Week 10 on, Aaron Jones was the RB4 in fantasy usage per game (17.1 expected half PPR points) while the Packers were 2nd in EPA per play. If Jacobs gets that level of work in that good of an offense, he doesn't even need to be more efficient than he was last year to be a fantasy RB1. And there's a chance his individual numbers (like broken tackles and yards after contact) also improve now that he's had a normal offseason and plays for a successful organization. The Packers' $14.8M in practical guarantees have made that exact bet. For more on how Jacobs fits in with the Packers' scheme, watch this. Hint: More gap runs as LaFleur copies McVay.
29. WR18 Chris Olave - It's not fully his fault, but Olave has finished 58th and 76th overall in his first two seasons. The Saints look even worse this year. I'm not sure his skillset is that of a true volume hog, so I'm lower on than consensus.
30. WR19 Mike Evans - He still had it last year. Evans has finished with +30%, +15%, +27%, +34%, +11%, and +31% fantasy points over expected despite playing in new offenses with new quarterbacks. The constant is Evans' downfield and red zone dominance. Last year's +31% fantasy points over expected were catalyzed by scoring 6.2 more TDs than his usage would indicate. That was the largest difference among WRs. He's not going to reproduce that again in 2024, especially after losing OC Dave Canales. But the 31-year-old also doesn't have to, compared to his WR18 Underdog Fantasy ADP. Evans was the per-game WR9 on WR14 usage last year and was the WR7 in weekly best ball points because when he scores points, he really scores points.
31. RB11 Derrick Henry - The annual top-3 RBs in half PPR points per game over the last 10 years have played on a team who finished over .500 on the season 80% of the time. 47% of these difference-making RBs played on teams above .667, too. The Ravens of course won .765 of their regular season games last year and have the 3rd-highest projected wins (11.5) in 2024. Henry's path to an elite season would come in the form of outlier touchdowns and insane rushing volume. Gus Edwards scored 13 times on 10.6 expected TDs as a part-timer without the big-play ability Henry has, and Henry's 1-year, $9M contract suggests he won't be in the even-split committee that "The Bus" dealt with alongside Keaton Mitchell (ACL-plus) and Justice Hill (1-year, $2M). As the clear workhorse on Titans' teams that won .353 and .412 of their games, Henry finished as the per-game 4th and 23rd overall player in his last two seasons. I'll take my chances that someone built like Henry can fight off the age-30 age cliff. His 2023 yards after contact per carry (3.3), elusiveness rating (64.7), and percentage of yards coming on big runs (33%) were right in line with his career averages... And if we're right on Henry balling out again, nothing will look cooler on TV than Henry in those Ravens uniforms.
32. RB12 Travis Etienne Jr. - He's at 925 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
33. WR20 DK Metcalf - New Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb designed my favorite college offense to watch last year. The Washington Huskies were 8th in pass rate and 4th in deep pass rate, plus they threw up 1-on-1s in the end zone. In other words, it was a full send. Geno Smith has the tools to deliver downfield strikes. He's the QB1 overall in completion percentage over expected since 2021 when he took over the starting gig, so we've been this close to a full DK Metcalf breakout. He's finished 38th and 41st overall in fantasy points over replacement in recent seasons, but this should be the most fantasy friendly environment for him of his career. Metcalf will be 26 years old, while downfield competitor Tyler Lockett turns 32.
34. WR21 Amari Cooper - Cooper is priced as if we know Deshaun Watson is going to be awful. Is that likely? Sure, but there is room for a minor bounce back that isn't being priced in. Cooper has finished 27th and 33rd overall in fantasy points over replacement per game in unideal circ*mstances, and we've seen the Browns flip their offensive identity with Nick Chubb exiting his prime. In fact, if we remove the 4 weeks where the Browns had P.J. Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their QBs, the Browns had the 4th-highest neutral pass rate in the NFL last year. Cooper averaged 14.9 half PPR points in those 11 non-CFL QB games, which would've made him the WR10 per game last year. He's drafted as the WR30 on Underdog Fantasy. Amari will be 23 years old this season, of course.
35. WR22 DeVonta Smith - He's gone from +6% to +25% all the way to +37% fantasy points over expected in his first three years as a pro. Smith was the 14th-best downfield player last year per completion percentage over expected (+15%), leading to 3.2 more TDs than expected. That was 7th best at the position. Those are very difficult to reproduce, though he's a proven model breaker in this Eagles offense. Smith is more valuable in best ball because of his weekly volatility. He had 8 games below 6.5 expected half PPR points (that's really low), yet still had 7 games above 14.0 half PPR points.
36. WR23 Tank Dell - We discussed his studly rookie tape here.
37. QB2 Patrick Mahomes - Adding Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy can't be overstated. The Chiefs were only 20th in big play passes, 23rd in deep-target catch rate, and 30th in average depth of target in the pass game. It was the most sluggish-looking good offense in the NFL, one that only was 15th in plays per game. They were still 4th in neutral pass rate, but their explosive play rate will unlock the ceiling games we've missed with Mahomes. In best ball, Mahomes is easily stacked with Isiah Pacheco, Brown, Worthy, and Rashee Rice being drafted shortly after. Mahomes was 16th in fantasy points over replacement in 2022 when he wasn't only throwing to MVS, Skyy, Kadarius, and the boys.
38. QB3 Josh Allen - This is the lowest I've ranked Allen in awhile, but things look different on offense. The Bills were 21st in neutral pass rate from Week 8 on under a new play-caller and after getting James Cook into a groove. More 2-TE sets without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis likely keep this balanced offense intact. That said, Allen was a top-6 QB in 5-of-7 games with OC Joe Brady because his red zone rushing. He'll have to remain 7th in inside the 5-yard line carries to be the really elite QB1. At 28 years old, Allen still has that in him. He was 25th in fantasy points over replacement per game last year. 14th in 2022.
39. TE1 Travis Kelce - Arguably bored of the regular season, Kelce still has glimpses of being the top-20 overall fantasy asset at times, but the overall output has fallen off heading into his age-35 season. He scored +29%, +28%, and +17% fantasy points over expected before that dropped to +6% in the 2023 regular season. His usage also was at a 7-year low. Kelce has his work cut out to be an "elite fantasy TE" with two primary additions to the receiver group, though the market isn't pricing him nearly as high on Underdog Fantasy (38th overall) as he was in the year's previous. Kelce was 56th overall in best ball points last year.
40. WR24 D.J. Moore - After tilting seasons with the Panthers, Moore made the most out of a new situation last year. He was +36% over expected (WR10), leading to a WR13 finish on WR26 usage. He did so by dominating on downfield targets. His +14% completion percentage over expected on targets of 15+ air yards were the 15th best in the NFL, and they helped him score 2.3 more TDs than expected (18th best). Doing so with Justin Fields at QB was extra impressive, but the improved QB situation is at least partially offset by significantly better target competition (Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze). There should be little confidence in how targets and efficiency will play out in this Bears' receiver room, especially with a new play caller in town, too. He's the WR17 on Underdog Fantasy right now, essentially splitting his production and usage from 2023. That's too rich for me -- regression and target competition are a tough tandem to overcome -- but Moore unquestionably has game-breaking weekly upside.
41. WR25 George Pickens - The 23-year-old is always talked about as an incomplete player, as if the other guys we draft in this range are well-rounded targets. It's odd to me because this is a very young, ascending high-caliber athlete with 5-star pedigree. Pickens already averaged 67 yards per game and finished as the 57th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game as a 22-year-old sophom*ore, too, despite only running half of the available routes on the tree. We've seen similar players (DK Metcalf, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Nico Collins, etc.) make improvements to their game around this time. Equally as important to his ascending profile is his elite fantasy environment heading into 2024. He's upgraded his QB group, play-caller, and offensive line, while also replacing Diontae Johnson (23% targets per route) with Van Jefferson and 3rd-rounder Roman Wilson (23% targets per route as a college senior). Pickens' downfield skillset is ideal for deep-target, play-action offense like OC Arthur Smith's, especially in best ball. He'll need more quick-hitting routes to truly arrive, but Pickens could be a top-12 fantasy receiver this year in similar ways to what we just saw with D.J. Moore in the Bears' talentless target void.
42. QB4 Lamar Jackson
43. WR26 Tee Higgins - Last season was a disaster. He missed 5 games and left 3 other games early due to various injuries. When Higgins was on the field, the results weren't the same. A huge part of his dip in efficiency were his downfield targets. In his first three years, Higgins had +1%, +11%, and +15% completion percentage over expected on his targets 15+ yards downfield. That was -15% last year. Joe Burrow wasn't himself on a bad calf and eventually a bad wrist, so I'm willing to call 2023 the outlier. If so, Higgins is a value with unrealized upside. He finished 37th overall in fantasy points over replacement in 2023. What happens if Higgins stays healthy and Ja'Marr Chase is the one dealing with injuries? I'm willing to find out in Round 4.
44. WR27 Stefon Diggs - The signs of a fall off are there, though Diggs does seem reinvigorated by the change of scenery. He'll go back to his deep-threat days where he shredded in best ball. There's just going to be less consistency in his target volume based on the offense and target competition. He ranked 32nd overall last year. Diggs will be 30 years old in 2023. I can't get on board with a 25th overall ADP. He's at 949 receiving yards and 7.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
45. RB13 Rachaad White - He's at 850 rushing yards and 5.5 rushing TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
46. RB14 Joe Mixon - He's finished 35th and 21st overall in the last two year, faces no competition for snaps in Houston, and is likely on a top-8 offense. The Texans added another $7M guaranteed to his old deal for no real reason either. They clearly think he's an ideal fit for their under-center rushing offense. I agree.
47. TE2 Sam LaPorta - It's rare for a rookie to finish as the TE3 overall on TE3 overall usage, but LaPorta is a rare tight end capable of winning in all phases. Where LaPorta may struggle to reproduce is in the touchdown department, as he led the position with +4.0 TDs over expected. He can afford to lose 1-4 TDs off his rookie-year total, however, especially if his finish to the season continues. From Week 12 on, LaPorta averaged 11.2 expected half PPR points per game. He was at 8.8 per game before that stretch. LaPorta was 49th overall in best ball points as a rookie.
48. TE3 Trey McBride - He's at 750 receiving yards in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
49. WR28 Christian Kirk - He finished as the 34th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game in 2022 as the Jaguars' lead receiver. We'll see if Brian Thomas immediately takes over as the top target as a rookie -- It's definitely possible. He's nice nice -- but if not, Kirk is looking prime for a bounce back season in terms of volume. He's been very efficient for his last three years (+19%, +10%, and +23% in fantasy points over expected) and remains in the prime of his career as a 27-year-old. All we need is better injury luck and for Trevor Lawrence to take his wildly anticipated leap into the top-8 QB conversation. The 25-year-old QB at least found upgrades at C (Mitch Morse) and LG (Ezra Cleveland) in recent months.
50. TE4 Mark Andrews - He's finished as the 61st and 64th overall player in fantasy points over replacement over the last two seasons. The 28-year-old has established a nice per-game baseline despite missing some time with unlucky injuries, and Andrews was a top-20 overall player three years ago. His per-route production hasn't changed much, however. He was at 2.2 yards per route during his elite season, then has been at 2.0 and 1.9 since. That was 4th-best last year. Andrews is a far more reliable top target than Zay Flowers in my opinion, and OC Todd Monken may feel more comfortable calling passes in their second season in the scheme, where Andrews set a career high in slot snaps (80%). He's a Round 5 auto-click on Round 4 Lamar Jackson teams in best ball. That stack used to cost an arm (Round 2) and a leg (Round 3) a few seasons back.
51. WR29 Zay Flowers - I don't see how he should be going ahead of Lamar Jackson because of Flowers goes off, Lamar will go even more off. More importantly, Flowers is expected to compete with Mark Andrews again. From Week 2-10 last year (9 games), Andrews averaged 12.2 half PPR points per game on 10.1 expected half PPR points. Flowers was down at 8.2 on 8.6 expected, yet their ADPs are flipped on Underdog. He's a sweet fit in this offense, but Flowers is likely more of a No. 2 target than a go-to option based on his size and route consistency. He was the WR52 against man coverage last year, for example. It's a bit earlier for that type of player profile in an offense that was 24th in WR fantasy usage last year. What if that number drops with Derrick Henry in the mix??? Flowers was 74th in fantasy points over replacement per game as a rookie.
52. QB5 C.J. Stroud - This generation's Peyton Manning incoming.
53. QB6 Anthony Richardson - The Colts were 3rd in plays per minute under coach Shane Steichen, a similar trend he had with the Eagles' aggressive offense during their Super Bowl run. Richardson has the dual-threat ability in a fast-paced offense to reach elite QB upside, especially with AD Mitchell replacing Alec Pierce and with the entire starting OL returning and Day 2/3 backups coming in from the draft. Last year as an inexperienced rookie, Richardson was the QB1 in fantasy points per dropback. He's the most likely QB to break into the top-3 range.
54. RB15 James Cook - He's at 875 rushing yards and 3.5 rushing TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
55. RB16 David Montgomery - The Lions have the 6th-highest projected win total heading into 2024, partially because their defense is improved. Montgomery feasted in positive game script last year, even when Jahymr Gibbs was balling out. D-Mont could be the clear 1b this year and still pay off this ADP, as they finished as the RB9 and RB11 in per-game scoring last season. The real value here is if something happens to Gibbs. Montgomery can handle 20+ touches per game, including the pass-game role. The Lions' new RB3 could be a converted safety in Sione Vaki, so Montgomery's trust factor could vault him into the top-10 conversation for weeks at a time.
56. WR30 Xavier Worthy - He's at 850 receiving yards and 4.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby. Our prospect video on him is here.
57. WR31 Michael Pittman Jr. - Without Adonai Mitchell, Pittman was 42nd overall. I can't get on board with a 31st overall ADP. He likely doesn't have the super star traits to get pull away from the WR1/2 borderline. The RPOs provide a very nice floor in what tends to be a Round 4 range full of busts. He's at 1,050 receiving yards and 4.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
58. WR32 Diontae Johnson
59. WR33 Rashee Rice - It took three months to earn Andy Reid's trust as a full-time player despite clearly being their best receiver as a rookie. Rice flirted with top-15 numbers during their Super Bowl run as a manufactured touch underneath outlet. His athleticism provided yards after catch appeal, though he never showed the nuance of being a downfield option. That didn't matter without any real target competition last year. It could matter if Hollywood Brown and/or Xavier Worthy live up to their hype. I'm unwilling to copy/paste his per-route metrics last year into 2024, so I'm relatively down on him before the legal case is factored in.
Now let's get to the legal part: Rice is facing 8 felonies in Texas, including an "aggravated assault", in his criminal case. There are 2 civil lawsuits as well, but those are far less important (if at all). The felony charges mean Rice is eligible for the Commissioner's Exempt List -- aka paid leave -- while the case plays out. Roger Goodell could place him on it at any time, though he's allowed Rice to practice this offseason so far and there's unlikely a major shoe to drop in Rice's case now that the video evidence is already public. If he goes on the list, then he'd miss games for as long as he's on it. If he remains eligible to play and practice, which is most likely, then the NFL is simply waiting for the criminal case to wrap up. I haven't been able to track down a trial date yet, and I've seen others incorrectly point to June and December as different trial dates. Those were for the civil lawsuits, not the criminal case. In theory, this criminal trial could get pushed into 2025, which opens up the possibility for 0 missed games this year. That'd be parlaying no Exempt List and a delayed trial date. It's possible -- arguably likely -- the Chiefs and Rice want action to happen now because the team doesn't really care about September and because Rice's lost salary during a suspension in 2024 would be smaller than it'd be in 2025 based on his contract. When the case is finalized, it'll be important to note if he's still convicted of felonies and in particular that aggravated assault because there is a "baseline suspension without pay of 6 games" in the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy for charges similar to that one. Other factors like Rice's previous run ins with police or the fact that there were children involved in the crash could add to the suspension according to that policy. In general, I'd say there's roughly a 20% chance of exactly 6 games in 2024, 10% odds of more than 6 games, 20% odds of 1-5 games, and 50% odds of 0 games in 2024 with an absence delayed into 2025. Which games he'll miss will depend on when the trial is over, so hopefully that's in the offseason and not randomly in the middle or late part of the season. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported a "multi-game suspension" is likely and "it doesn't look like he's going to be a part of that start of the season." Schefter could easily have more insight on when the trial is expected and how motivated the parties are to rush or delay the trail.
60. WR34 Marquise Brown - Let's try to put numbers to how different the 2024 Chiefs and 2023 Cardinals are. Brown had a career-low 15% fantasy points over expected last year while trying to catch downfield passes from Josh Dobbs and the boys. He only caught 8-of-31 deep targets for a -17% completion percentage over expected. That was 83rd out of 88 qualifiers. Yikes. Drops were a clear issue, but some of that was due to inaccuracies, a problem thwarted by playing with Patrick Mahomes. Since 2020, Mahomes is at +4% on his downfield throws. A normalization in his long completions will also lead to more TD opportunities during his age-27 contract year... On top of this, I want to short Rashee Rice, who I think is solid as an underneath option but is not nearly as good as what his rookie stats would indicate. Rice dominated because there were no other receivers who could get open, ever. He's not a first read guy, nor a downfield guy, nor a good guy. He's been in trouble twice this offseason and is lucky he didn't cause multiple fatalities. This is all after being off teams' boards for character issues at SMU. I'm expecting 4-8 games lost due to suspension given the extent of Texas law and the fact that there are 8 felony charges.
61. TE5 Dalton Kincaid - He's at 750 receiving yards in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
62. TE6 Kyle Pitts - He's at 750 receiving yards in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
63. WR35 Brian Thomas Jr. - I can't believe people are concerned with Thomas' freshman year stats when we just watched him put up 91 yards and 1.3 TDs per game as a 20-year-old true junior against SEC competition. Thomas has the traits of a Pro Bowl deep threat (6'3"/209 with 4.33 speed), and Trevor Lawrence has the unrealized skills to give him the volume he needs. Watch our entire video on Thomas below. Just make sure to ignore Josh's thoughts on him:
64. WR36 Terry McLaurin
65. WR37 Calvin Ridley - It's been a rollercoaster career. His fantasy points over expected were at +46% with Kyle Shanahan, then +31% and +11% with the Shanny-less Falcons before the foot injury and suspension, and finally -6% in his return with the Jaguars. It's unrealistic to think he bounces back in his age-30 season, especially going from Trevor Lawrence to Will Levis.
66. RB17 Kenneth Walker III
67. RB18 Najee Harris - In laughably designed offenses with horrendous offensive line play, Harris churned out 53rd and 83rd overall finishes. There's hope that drafting starting tackles in back-to-back first rounds and adding a physical, ready-made center in the second round this year can vault the Steelers into watchable territory. Expect Harris to see plenty of volume, even if Jaylen Warren is within the Wally Pipp zone. There's likely enough work for two based on the Arthur Smith OC hiring.
68. RB19 James Conner - Because he's not fast, Conner catches strays but all he does is fill up the box score... on nice efficiency, too. He's been above-average in fantasy points over expected in 5-of-6 seasons as a full-time player, including +25%, +5%, and +11% points over expected during his time in Arizona. Conner only scored 1.5 more TDs than expected last year, so his strong efficiency largely came between the 20s. He had a career-high 5.0 YPC while finishing as the RB1 in yards after contact per carry and broken tackles per carry. Those are likely to come down in his age-29 season, but there's a lot of room for decline. He was the RB6 on RB12 usage and RB11 efficiency last year.
69. TE7 David Njoku - The 28-year-old is coming off a career-high 55 yards per game and 82nd overall fantasy points over replacement finish. Njoku is marginally threatened by the addition of Jerry Jeudy, but the Browns became the 3rd-highest neutral pass rate team from Week 8 on (probably because Nick Chubb was out with a knee dislocation type of injury). Over that stretch, Njoku was at a very nice 69 yards and 6 receptions per game. We'll see if coach Kevin Stefaniski stays super pass heavy with the ghost of Deshaun Watson at QB, but we'll also see if Watson can rebound in 2024, which is unlikely but completely priced in. Njoku was the TE7 in yards per route.
This table compares every Round 1-9 TE that's been drafted in the five years of Best Ball Mania on Underdog Fantasy. The numbers on the right are the most important production and efficiency stats from that TE's previous season. Njoku's profile looks better than every TE that's been drafted in Round 8 or Round 9. He seems undervalued after balling out late in 2023.
70. TE8 George Kittle - This Hall of Fame run is another reminder that each player has their own efficiency baseline. Kittle has been at +32%, +29%, +48%, and +36% fantasy points over expected over the last four seasons. Insanity! He's capable of breaking the slate despite being a 32-year-old tight end. While his efficiency remains world class, his total usage has regressed with the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk and the addition of Christian McCaffrey. Kittle was at a 6-year-low in expected half PPR points per game (7.2) last season, a trend unlikely to reverse. He averaged 6.8 expected points with Aiyuk and Deebo both in the lineup. That didn't stop him from a TE7 per-game finish last year. He just has to remain that good to be worthy of a 68th overall ADP.
71. WR38 Keenan Allen
72. WR39 Rome Odunze - Love the player. Love the long-term fit. Hate the target competition with a (very good) rookie QB dealing with a mediocre play-caller. This is about the range when the WR upside falls off, but I prefer the 25th to 75th percentile outcomes of the other receivers in this range. Caleb Williams being able to produce two WR2s and a WR3 would be wildly impressive. That's what I have in these rankings. He's at 750 receiving yards and 4.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
73. WR40 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
74. WR41 Chris Godwin - In his three season before his multi-ligament knee tear, Godwin was at +42%, +31%, and +14% fantasy points over expected. Since then, he's been at -1% and 0% while also seeing fewer expected points per game. Baker Mayfield found great rapport with Mike Evans last year, but the new coaching staff wants to prioritize more slot snaps for Godwin this year after struggling more outside. It's a smart move for the Bucs. Godwin just can't be expected to bounce back to his pre-injury and peak-Brady seasons. That said, Godwin was dead last in TDs over expected (-3.9) among 217 qualifiers in 2023. This is his age-28 season and a contract year. If it doesn't happen now, it's Joever. He was the WR40 on WR26 usage last year. He's the WR42 in drafts right now. That's reasonable.
75. QB7 Kyler Murray
76. WR42 Ladd McConkey - Justin Herbert's clear-cut top receiver isn't a 5th-rounder yet. One day, he will be. I was very high on McConkey's skills pre-draft. The landing spot makes a ton of sense, too.
77. RB20 Rhamondre Stevenson - The Patriots remain a disaster on offense, so much so that it's nearly impossible for Stevenson to become more than an upside RB2, but we've seen exactly that happen before. He was the 29th overall player in 2022, then dropped to 64th overall with Zeke last year. Those were two of the worst "offenses" I've ever seen, yet Stevenson would still be okay if he simply repeated those years at this ADP (albeit with better injury luck). New England has a higher floor with Jacoby Brissett and a higher ceiling with Drake Maye compared to the Mac Jones year, and the coaching staff can only get better. New OC Alex Van Pelt has been the Browns coordinator since 2020. Did they get their RBs involved then? I forget.
78. RB21 Alvin Kamara - It's been 3-straight seasons of below-average fantasy efficiency for Kamara, who turns 29 years old this upcoming season. His -11% fantasy points over expected in 2023 was a career low for him. He scored 3.8 fewer TDs than his usage would indicate and set a new low in yards per touch. The Saints' offensive line is expected to be in an even worse situation after losing two potential starters to retirement.
79. RB22 Raheem Mostert - The bust rates on 8th-9th round fantasy picks are already really high. Mostert could easily fall off during his age-32 season, but how many 8th-9th round fantasy picks provide the same upside? Basically none. He doesn't have to score 21 TDs or be the 5th overall player in best ball points to justify this ADP. It feels like the market has said "Mostert isn't going to reproduce his 2023 numbers, so I don't want to draft him at all." That's a faulty viewpoint. Mostert can be the 1b in this Dolphins offense and produce boom-bust RB2 numbers. Heck, even when De'Von Achane returned from injury (5 games), Mostert averaged 13.3 half PPR points, which would've been the RB19 last year. It doesn't hurt that the Dolphins gave Mostert another $1M in added guarantees this offseason as a nod to his elite 2023 season.
80. RB23 Jaylen Warren
81. QB8 Dak Prescott
82. TE9 Jake Ferguson - He was 2nd in missed tackles forced, 6th in yards after catch per reception, 7th in targets, 8th in yards, and 9th in receptions last year, but Ferg Daddy was unbelievably unlucky in touchdowns last year. In fact, he scored -3.8 TDs over expected based on his usage despite playing in a sweet offense. Of course, regression immediately hit in the NFL Playoffs when he scored three damn times. Come on!!! Well, nothing has changed for Ferguson heading into age-25 season.
83. RB24 Zack Moss - Nobody was better on shotgun runs last year, something the Bengals are going to major in once again. Moss earned a $4.5M guaranteed contract this offseason, essentially the same contract they had in line for Joe Mixon who has finished 21st and 35th overall in this Bengals offense. The OL looks better in Cincy this time around with 1st-round RT Amarius Mims, and Chase Brown is very unproven as a runner despite a maxed-out athletic chart. Almost all of Brown's production last year came as a screen merchant. Do we think that translates to running the ball? Color me skeptical. Moss in a land slide for me, but if you want darts on Brown because the Bengals have the 4th-highest win projections, then I understand.
84. WR43 Courtland Sutton - Only Ja'Lynn Polk (who we will get to below) is drafted later as their team's top pass catcher. Sutton is undeniably good at football, too, and there's seriously nobody around competing for targets, with Jerry Jeudy being replaced by a combination of Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds, and Troy Franklin. Sutton was all boom-bust last year because Russell Wilson can't play in the quick game, but he could be more consistent this season with a quick-hitting (very productive and efficient) quarterback. Sutton was the WR21 on WR43 usage last year, yet is drafted as the WR51 right now going into his age-29 season. He's the perfect one-off receiver who will not be dragged up in ADP for stacking purposes. Sutton is just a nice slight win in the middle rounds.
85. WR44 Jayden Reed - There are two forms of regression to watch out for with Reed: target competition and big-play efficiency. Christian Watson missed half of last year. Without him, Reed averaged 10.8 expected half PPR points. That dropped to 6.4 with him healthy, including 4.7 and 4.6 expected half PPR outings in the two playoff games on 50% and 72% route participation. More Watson playing time would be bad news for Reed. Additionally, Reed had a bonkers +30% fantasy points over expected finish. He did so by ranking 16th in completion percentage over expected (+13%) on his deep targets and 15th in receiving TDs over expected (+2.4 scores). Reed also scored 2 times as a rusher. He's a very good player capable of breaking models and handling manufactured touches, but repeating last year's heat will be difficult. He was the per-game WR33 last year and is drafted as the WR32 right now.
86. WR45 Christian Watson
87. WR46 Jordan Addison - The Vikings found a legit No. 2 receiver in Addison, but year two expectations need to be realistic after what happened as a rookie. Addison only averaged 6.9 expected half PPR points per game in his 7 contests with Justin Jefferson healthy, versus 10.3 without his super-start teammate. Jefferson is very unlikely to miss as much time in 2024, and Addison's 1st, 3rd, and 4th best fantasy games of the year were without Jefferson and with Kirk Cousins. On top of that, Addison scored 4.2 more TDs than his usage would indicate, which is the 3rd-highest mark of the position. Even if he's a mini model breaker based on his route running ability, Addison has a lot to overcome at a 71st overall ADP on Underdog Fantasy.
Now let's get to the legal part: A police report suggest Jordan Addison was asleep at the wheel of a busy Los Angeles freeway. He was arrested for DUI. The toxicology report will take over a month to process most likely, and nothing can really happen until those results are in. Assuming it is above the legal limit, Addison seems likely to plead guilty, as he was literally asleep on the freeway. That would mean a relatively fast turnaround time to be sentenced, though this should be measured in months still... The NFL won't suspend him until his case is done. Then they'll act quickly in suspending him. First time offenders for a DUI serve a 3-game suspension, while second-time offenders serve 8. Addison's reckless driving and speeding misdemeanor for going 140 MPH last year isn't a DUI, but Roger Goodell could look at past behavior to add games missed if he wants to. It seems most likely to be 3 or 4 games, and it'll happen almost immediately after his case is closed. Whether that happens in 2024 or in 2025 largely depends on LA County. Don't rule out the possibility that he serves a suspension late in the season. That's what happened to Deonte Harty (DUI arrest in July and Week 14-16 suspension that season) and Kareem Jackson (Week 3 DUI arrest and Week 15-16 suspension that season) recently. Sam Sherman has other examples in his thread here... I guess we'll be drafting our re-draft teams on Labor Day Weekend without knowing when Addison will serve his suspension.
88. QB9 Joe Burrow - The fact that he's already throwing suggests things will most likely be totally fine, but Burrow's wrist surgery was a major one and it was extremely rare for a QB to have it done to his throwing side. Burrow described it as the most difficult rehab of his life (remember he had a torn ACL) and that it could be something he just has to manage moving forward. I docked him slightly due to injury but full participation in training camp would thwart any hesitation I currently have. He's been a mid-range QB1 when healthy.
89. QB10 Jordan Love - From Week 12 on, Love was 1st in EPA per play, 2nd in success rate, 2nd in PFF grade, 1st in completion percentage over expected, 1st in pressure to sack rate, and 4th in big time throw rate. All while he was rotating his WRs, TEs, and RBs around. There should be a better understanding of the personnel, and Love added a versatile 1st-round OT in the draft. The Packers will need to be better than 21st in neutral pass rate and 21st in plays per minute for Love to graduate from the QB1/2 borderline, but if they do, there are a lot of value options in Green Bay. Love has 8 stacking partners (2 QBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs), with 5 of them being drafted after Love's ADP. He's a great back-stacking QB with upside.
90. QB11 Caleb Williams
91. WR47 Keon Coleman - It does make me nervous that Coleman is going to play a lot of outside receiver on the Bills because he's not fast enough to consistently win downfield, but Buffalo is desperate for WR talent and Josh Allen is willing to throw contested targets, especially on broken plays. Coleman has to be a full-time player with primary slot options Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir as his running mates, and Gabe Davis has been a boom-bust WR3/4 while not being a separator in this exact offense... with prime Stefon Diggs! There's a chance Coleman looks better in a more pro-styled offense, as the Florida State offense would often throw up prayers to Coleman that had no business being thrown. We had a great debate on Coleman's college film here:
92. WR48 Curtis Samuel - Miraculously only 28 years old still, Samuel was signed as a full-time player on a 4-year, $24M contract with $15M guaranteed. He's been most productive in the slot, but he's a real route runner capable of being in 2-WR sets. That's likely with slot-only Khalil Shakir, lowly-paid MVS, lowly-paid Chase Claypool, and raw 2nd-rounder Keon Coleman as his competition for snaps. Samuel also has experience with OC Joe Brady. In fact, his career-high 41 rush attempts came with him calling plays in Carolina. Since then, Samuel has been wasted in Washington. He was the 115th and 100th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game during his last two years, with better target competition and worse QB play. If we really dig into the numbers, we can see that he was doing a good job of getting open (71st percentile targets per man coverage route) yet was routinely missed by his QB (48th percentile first downs per man coverage route).
93. WR49 DeAndre Hopkins - He hasn't been his peak-self in a couple of seasons. Hopkins buoyed between +9% and +28% fantasy points over expected during his prime but has fell to +6% and +2% over his last two seasons. The Titans added Calvin Ridley and a pass-first coach this offseason, so his usage is hard to project. His efficiency is in a clear downfall heading into his age-32 season, and Will Levis' inaccuracies are likely to work against that turning back. He was the WR31 on WR20 usage in 2023, so his discounted WR46 price tag on Underdog Fantasy seems a little too pessimistic.
94. WR50 Joshua Palmer - The 24-year-old is coming off a career-high 1.7 yards per route and 18% targets per route, both mid-level starter numbers. But his target competition is completely dried up and he has the size/versatility profile of a full-time player in the new Chargers offense. Palmer was the WR36 in man coverage composite score last year with some upside for improvement heading into a contract season. He was the 106th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game in 2023 behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. It's possible he's the teams go-to option if early 2nd-rounder Ladd McConkey isn't ready for full-time snaps.
95. TE10 Evan Engram - It's ineffective offense to target Engram 143 times again (6.7 YPT), and the 30-year-old had splits with and without Christian Kirk. Specifically, 7.5 targets per game versus 9.9. Because Engram is so inefficient, a decline in targets would make a big impact on his fantasy value.
96. RB25 Rico Dowdle
97. RB26 Javonte Williams - We'll see if Williams looks better in his second season back from a serious multi-ligament knee tear, but last year's numbers weren't good enough. He had -22% fantasy points over expected (one of the worst at the position), and the Broncos aren't good enough on offense for him to get there purely as a volume hog. In fact, Denver projects for 52 fewer points than they scored last year, leading them to the 2nd-worst projected team total across the league this year. In-charge Sean Payton didn't draft Williams, but he has brought in Samaje Perine, Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Blake Watson over the last 14 months. As Javonte heads into his contract year, Payton could be looking for production beyond 2024 once December roles around.
98. RB27 Zamir White - The Raiders lose Josh Jacobs and replace him with Alexander Mattison ($1.9M) and 6th-rounder Dylan Laube out of New Hampshire. White is one of the biggest offseason winners, has 5-star pedigree, and the size to hold up in a way too run-heavy offense. He could see top-8 expected points at the position. There's an argument that he should be ranked even higher than this. Vegas' loss of starting linemen keep me one foot in, one foot out.
99. RB28 Aaron Jones - From 2017 to 2022, Jones finished above-average in fantasy points over expected every single year. Then 2023 happened. His -18% points over expected were a career low and he battled injuries yet again. Jones' ineffectiveness was partially felt with a career-low 5.2 yards per touch, but the real culprit was a lack of touchdowns. He scored 3 times. My model thought he should've scored 8, so it was one of the worst discrepancies (-5.0 TDs over expected) at RB. His odds of a true bounce back are diminished by the Vikings' lack of RB usage:
100. RB29 Jonathon Brooks - It might be a slow start because the Panthers stink and he's coming off a torn ACL, but Brooks has bellcow size, pedigree, and production. He was the only rookie RB I felt comfortable projecting as a 250+ touch player in the NFL and coach Dave Canales fed Rachaad White a bunch of work last year. If reports that he'll be cleared at the beginning of training camp are true, then Brooks will fly up boards. Even when the Panthers were absolute cheeks last year, Chuba Hubbard averaged 13.3 half PPR points in his last seven games.
101. RB30 Blake Corum - Kyren Williams was 2nd overall in fantasy points over replacement last year, and we compared Corum to Kyren before the draft because of his versatility and quick decision-making. Sean McVay and GM Les Snead immediately comparing Corum to Kyren in their post-draft press conference was our official buy signal. If Kyren misses time or is Wally Pipped, Corum can be a top-10 RB option for us. This is a no-brainer selection. In fact, I'm shocked he isn't going earlier.
102. RB31 Devin Singletary
103. RB32 D'Andre Swift - He's at 850 rushing yards and 7.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
104. TE11 Brock Bowers - He set a new record for most college production among TEs when adjusted for team and age, but the landing spot is underwhelming. Coach Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball (48% neutral pass rate), new OC Luke Getsy was ran out of Chicago, and Gardner Minshew is one of the worst starting QBs out there. On top of that, the Raiders will have to figure out their young 2-TE sets with 2023 2nd-rounder Michael Mayer also in the mix. Neither are great blockers imo. Just an odd fit for his rookie season. He's at 700 receiving yards and 4.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
105. TE12 Dallas Goedert
106. QB12 Jayden Daniels - There are legit worries about his frame and rushing style lasting, but the passing bar for Daniels to be fantasy football relevant is very low because of how insane he is as a rusher. He's averaged 79 rushing yards per game since 2021 (including sack yards as negatives) and has put up 125+ carries in all 4 seasons as a starter. As you can see before, almost every QB with 125+ carries in an NFL season has been a top-12 QB, often much higher. And Daniels' environment is at least okay. From the great Pat Throman, "Kliff Kingsbury’s offense ranked first in both situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons in Arizona." Even if the OL is worrisome and the WR group is overrated, Daniels can put up fantasy points in Washington. I especially like him as a QB1 for 3-QB best ball teams. His injury downside is mitigated by the 3rd QB, but his upside late in the year if he struggles early could create some low-advance rate advantages.
107. RB33 Tyjae Spears - We discussed his rookie tape here.
108. RB34 Tony Pollard - As a committee member, Pollard finished with +24%, +2%, +13%, and +31% fantasy points over expected. Then he broke his ankle and became the Cowboys' lead back in 2023. He bottomed out with -24% efficiency and 9.1 TDs under expected. Yikes. It's difficult to judge if it was the increased volume, the worse OL, the injury, or a combination of all. Either way, Pollard isn't likely to be the game-breaking player he was years ago behind the Titans' work-in-progress OL. The front office and coaching staff are already saying Tyjae Spears will be a 1a/1b member.
109. WR51 Romeo Doubs
110. WR52 Jameson Williams - No ACL recovery. No off-field suspension. No Josh Reynolds. 2024 is our first year to take Jamo seriously in fantasy football, which hurts me to put him on this list again. The price is just steep. Williams is penciled into 2-WR sets. That's huge. He still has flaws to his game on tape, particularly dealing with physicality and routing up CBs in man coverage. Williams of course can fly by CBs and score long TDs (helpful for best ball), but he was the WR66 in man coverage composite score and has cleared 6 targets just once in 19 games so far. A pure "better in best ball" profile typically isn't priced this high. I'd happily take him in the early 100s.
111. WR53 Mike Williams
112. WR54 Rashid Shaheed - The Saints had the worst coaching staff in the NFL last year, so it's good to see new OC Klint Kubiak now calling plays. He was the San Francisco pass-game coordinator last year, obviously coming from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree. Shaheed hasn't graduated into 2-WR sets yet because he's so skinny, but there's a chance he does this year with a new regime and without Michael Thomas around. As pointed out on ADP Chasing, there's potential for Shaheed to be the at-snap motion man in this offense. The 49ers used it the most in the NFL last year. The Saints, dead last. A modern approach to offense could be what sends Shaheed to the spike-week moon. On tape, he's a legit player capable of stopping on a dime while running breaking routes. He finished with +30% fantasy points over expected last year for a reason.
113. WR55 Brandin Cooks - Touting 31-year-olds is never a great look, but Cooks is still fine! He's finished with +21%, +13%, +1%, and +21% fantasy points over expected and nothing has changed from last year, except Michael Gallup is gone and the OL might be a little worse. Cooks was the 85th overall player in best ball points in his first year with Dak Prescott and pass-heavy Mike McCarthy. In fact, the Cowboys were 5th in neutral pass rate. His primary competition for WR targets behind CeeDee Lamb is Jalen Tolbert (career 0.8 yards per route).
114. WR56 Jerry Jeudy - He's at 725 receiving yards and 3.5 TDs in the Underdog Pick'em Lobby.
115. RB35 Gus Edwards - The Bus was signed first and given more money ($3.4M guaranteed) than JK Dobbins ($50k guaranteed). Edwards is likely to be the early-down and goal-line back for the Chargers.
116. RB36 Brian Robinson Jr. - The way many fantasy analysts speak on him, there may not be a more underrated back than Robinson, who finished 50th overall in a bad Commanders offense. Their OL scares me to death, as does the floor around their QB room, but the volume is solid. Austin Ekeler's $4.2M guaranteed is that of a committee member.
117. RB37 Chase Brown
118. QB13 Brock Purdy
119. QB14 Matthew Stafford
120. QB15 Trevor Lawrence
121. QB16 Tua Tagovailoa
122. TE13 Pat Freiermuth - There's just nobody to throw the ball to in Pittsburgh behind George Pickens. Freiermuth has the ability to be a top-10 receiving TE on his own, too. He's an athletic former 2nd-round who peaked at a 1.7 yards per route average in 2022. He's now entering the prime of his career in a TE-friendly offense. New OC Arthur Smith will dial up first-read targets to his TEs (see: rookie Kyle Pitts, career-high Jonnu Smith, career-high Anthony Firkser, etc.), and the Steelers' TE2 Darnell Washington is not far off from being an offensive tackle. There will be pass attempts where it's Pickens, Freiermuth, and a really mid No. 2 WR will be the only options.
123. WR57 Gabe Davis
124. WR58 Khalil Shakir - His high ADP has to be stacking related because Shakir has playing time and skill talent concerns. Shakir has been a slot-only player to date, which could be problematic if the Bills further commit to 2-TE sets or keep Curtis Samuel in the slot. Last year, Shakir was the WR84 out of 117 qualifiers in man coverage composite score. His targets per route were in the bottom 8th percentile. He's better against zone coverage if that moves your needle.
125. WR59 Dontayvion Wicks
126. WR60 Tyler Lockett - He's coming off a 1.6 yards per route season, which is his lowest since 2017. Part of that dip was the screens going to JSN, lowering Lockett's YAC to a career worst. We shouldn't expect any of that to bounce back, but Lockett does get the benefit of a new OC who wants to dial up downfield passes. His long-TD odds remain solid as a "better in best ball" WR5. He can also completely bottom out if JSN takes over 2-WR sets as Lockett heads into his age-32 season. He was 94th overall in fantasy points over replacement per game during the Seahawks' disappointing 2023 campaign.
127. WR61 Jakobi Meyers
128. WR62 Adonai Mitchell - His best reps looked elite. They just came too infrequently to be worth a 1st-round pick. Mitchell at least went to a favorable landing spot for best ball production. He should lap Alec Pierce for the vertical-only role, a position that in theory matches up well with Anthony Richardson's downfield arm. Mitchell needs to develop the rest of his game to be counted on. We'll see how he adjusts as a rookie.
129. QB17 Deshaun Watson
130. RB38 Zach Charbonnet
131. RB39 Jerome Ford
132. RB40 Austin Ekeler - In 2021, Ekeler scored 23% more fantasy points than his usage would suggest, but that's dropped to 8% and -18% respectively over the last two seasons. Last year was a career low, of course. Ekeler battled a high-ankle sprain from Week 1 on, but he's also a smaller back with a ton of NFL hits under his belt.
133. RB41 Tyler Allgeier - New Falcons OC Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree, who loves to hammer one RB over and over and over again. That'll be Bijan Robinson... until it isn't. If B-Rob misses time, Allgeier has bellcow size and just enough skills to be used in a major role. His primary insurance competition is Bama backup and 6th-round rookie Jase McClellan. Allgeier has top-20 RB upside for weeks at a time. How is that dissimilar to strict backups Zach Charbonnet (ADP: 136th), Jaylen Wright (145th), Marshawn Lloyd (152nd), Ty Chandler (155th), Kendre Miller (159th), or Chuba Hubbard (159th)? I've at least seen Allgeier handle 15+ opportunities in 13 games in his young career.
134. RB42 Trey Benson
135. QB18 Jared Goff - He was the 126th overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game last year, and the betting markets believe the Lions aren't scoring more points this season. Goff will always lose fantasy points to the dual-threat QBs in the tiers above him, and the Lions' rushing presence in the red zone typically chops off a few passing scores from his box scores over the course of the season. The ceiling is capped. Not a fun sentence to write when we're talking about the best ball format.
136. QB19 Geno Smith - Smith has been 111th and 144th in fantasy points over replacement per game in recent seasons, and 2024 profiles as his best environment for production yet. New Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb called the 8th-highest pass rate and 4th-highest deep pass rate of all Power 5 colleges last season with the Washington Huskies. That's how you put up 300+ yard, 3+ TD games, especially when Smith has three WRs and a TE capable of stretching the field. Since starting for the Seahawks in 2021, Smith has the best completion percentage over expected. If he gets more opportunities in this fantasy-friendly scheme, then Smith can be a borderline QB1 despite being an in-pocket signal caller. Not to mention, the NFC West is loaded with offense.
137. TE14 Luke Musgrave - We debated Musgrave vs. Tucker Kraft here.
138. RB43 Chuba Hubbard
139. RB44 Ty Chandler
140. WR63 Ja'Lynn Polk - The 2nd-rounder should pace the Patriots in snaps and targets as a rookie because he has a do-everything profile with inside-outside versatility. Polk ran a lot of downfield routes in the Huskies' aerial offense (13.8 aDOT) but has flashed the dirty work profile of a classic snap-eating receiver. In fact, Josh Norris comped him to Robert Woods in the video below. It's exactly what the Patriots needed in year one of their offensive rebuild: a high-floor prospect to give Drake Maye a reliable option behind a bad OL. Polk is the latest an NFL team's top WR or TE is drafted in best. It's not close either (31st: Broncos at 107th overall).
141. WR64 Darnell Mooney - The Falcons will be in 3-WR sets on 90% of their plays this year, and Mooney was paid ($26M guaranteed over 2 years) to be their clear No. 2 receiver. He's not my favorite receiver because his size can be so debilitating, but this role has bred spike weeks out of Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn. It's weird to be ahead of the market on a player I don't love, yet here I am.
142. TE15 Hunter Henry - There's no season-long upside here, but Henry remains a productive TE2. He had 5 games last year with at least 4-39-1, leading to a 114th overall finish in fantasy points over replacement per game. The Patriots couldn't have been worse on offense then either. If things get any better with Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye at QB, the 29-year-old could unlock a little more weekly ceiling. It doesn't hurt that Henry signed a 2-year contract with $18.5M in practical guarantees this offseason to be the clear top TE in new OC Alex Van Pelt's offense. He comes from the Cleveland offense that has a lot of first-read targets to TEs. We talked to Colt McCoy about the offense on a recent show because it was the same offense that made Trey McBride a total smash in 2023:
143. TE16 Tyler Conklin
144. TE17 Noah Fant - Because Will Dissly (Chargers) and Colby Parkinson (Rams) were versatile players in ex-OC Shane Waldron's TE-galaxy brain scheme, Fant only played between 42% and 64% of snaps in all but one of his healthy games last year. He was only a part-time player. That should change now, especially after securing a 2-year, $21M contract this offseason. Fant had an elite ceiling as a prospect based on his athleticism, age, and production, but things haven't gone his way yet. The Seahawks are banking on a second contract breakout, something that happens frequently at TE (David Njoku, Evan Engram, Darren Waller, etc.). A career 1.5 yards per route average is all we need to provide TE1/2 spikes, assuming his playing time trends towards full-time status. It doesn't hurt that new OC Ryan Grubb called one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the Power 5 last year with the Washington Huskies.
145. QB20 Justin Herbert
146. RB45 Ezekiel Elliott - He received $2M in guarantees with another $1M incentives. That's enough for Zeke to be an active player and direct competitor to Rico Dowdle (6'0"/216), but it's not enough signal to assume he's the clear-cut starter on May 6th. Tony Pollard finished 66th overall as the Cowboys' clear starter last year when the offense became the 3rd-most pass-heavy. Whoever is the goal-line back is the one to draft. Dowdle averaged a 47% success rate and 4.0 yards per carry last season. Zeke, 45% and 3.5 while in a short-yardage only role with the Patriots. The uncertainty is unnerving, but we get to draft the Cowboys' RBs in the double-digit rounds. Roll the dice on either one of these backs.
147. QB21 Aaron Rodgers
148. WR65 Jahan Dotson
149. WR66 Rashod Bateman - Did it work in the past? No. But the Ravens are financially committed to the Bateman bit.
150. WR67 Andrei Iosivas - He's filling in for Tyler Boyd so far. He's also big and athletic.
151. TE18 T.J. Hockenson - It was a Week 16 injury, and it's even worse than that. He tore his ACL and MCL, meaning the return is more complicated. His surgery didn't happen until January 29th, so 9 months would be a Halloween return. The Vikings aren't in win now mode after dumping Kirk Cousins and already have Hockenson under contract long term. They're likely to slow-play him this year. Even if he's healthier than expected, the Vikings aren't going to be as good on offense with a rookie QB, and Jordan Addison is a target share threat.
152. WR68 Adam Thielen
153. WR69 Michael Wilson
154. WR70 Josh Downs - A high-ankle sprain could limit his usage and effectiveness throughout September.
155. RB46 Braelon Allen
156. RB47 Jordan Mason - He's reportedly pushed Eli Mitchell out of the 49ers' RB2 gig. That's obviously an important role for fantasy, especially with CMC missing some time with a calf injury. He's had those in the past. Mason runs hard and is a decisive runner. I'm a fan.
157. RB48 Ray Davis
158. WR71 Demarcus Robinson - D-Rob looks to have a pretty locked-in role as the second outside receiver after re-signing this offseason (1-year, $4M). Robinson put up 1.8, 13.5, 12.1, 13.7, 17.2, 12.2, and 5.9 half PPR points in his starts, often playing 85% or more snaps. There's enough production (52 yards per game) to warrant an 18th round selection even in this role, but there is dual contingent upside if Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp miss time. The blocks and big hits over the middle these two take give them more injury risk than most receivers.
159. WR72 Xavier Legette - A minor foot injury in August is hurting his odds of surpassing Jonathon Mingo and Adam Thielen. I smell Post Bye Rookie Bump.
160. WR73 Marvin Mims Jr. - Awful as a rookie. Against man coverage, Mims was the WR98 out of 117 qualifiers. Size will always work against Mims' path to full-time opportunities, especially if it's proven that he needs to work from the slot to get away from physical corners lining up on the line of scrimmage. For now, that's the most likely scenario.
161. RB49 Khalil Herbert
162. RB50 Tyrone Tracy Jr. - Devin Singletary signed a solid 2-year, $10.75M practically guaranteed contract to be the Giants lead back, but he isn't an untouchable talent and there's essentially nobody behind him. Tracy has a super boom-bust profile, given he just starting playing RB in 2023, but he showed a lot of athleticism and rushing instincts at Purdue. If he's just the passing-down back as a rookie, this price tag is fine. If something happens to Singletary, I like Tracy's odds of beating out Eric Gray, Deon Jackson, and Gary Brightwell for lead-back touches.
163. RB51 J.K. Dobbins
164. RB52 MarShawn Lloyd - AJ Dillon signed a very unique, rarely-used contract provision called the "four-year player qualifying contract" this offseason that essentially gives him just $167k guaranteed and a league-minimum cap hit. In other words, Dillon is only in Green Bay because he didn't get a decent offer from anyone else. There's a small chance he could get cut before Week 1... Lloyd is a boom-bust prospect capable of mixing in behind Jacobs when he needs a breather. He has light feet for a heavy back, with enough explosiveness to even be an occasional pass-catching option. We talked about his profile here:
165. RB53 Nick Chubb - This is a devastating multi-ligament to the same knee he already had a knee dislocation to. The Browns didn't make huge investments behind Chubb, but Jerome Ford was functional last year and the offensive identity is no longer as run-heavy as it was during Chubb's prime. Chubb is a PUP candidate with lower projected touch volume upon his return, which is at risk for setbacks. Cleveland kept him for just $2M more than what they would've lost in dead money if they would've fully replaced him. He should be viewed as a committee back in the second half of the season. If you want Chubb, the best time to draft him will likely be in the final weeks of best ball season once it's fully priced in that he's likely to miss regular season time.
166. TE19 Juwan Johnson - The converted WR has finished as the 126th and 132nd overall player in fantasy points over replacement per game as the Saints' primary TE. Johnson was top-10 in percentage of snaps in the slot or out wide last year and faces little competition for targets in the pass game. New OC Klint Kubiak was the Vikings' coordinator during Tyler Conklin's breakout year, was the Broncos' play caller when Greg Dulcich was a thing, and was the pass-game coordinator for the Niners last year. This is a TE-friendly offense all things considered. Johnson's production, $7M cap hit, and age-28 status are enough to believe in as a late-round flier. His second most recent game resulted in an 12-8-90-1 receiving line and Week 17 TE1 overall finish.
167. TE20 Dalton Schultz - You don't throw the ball to Schultz when you have Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. Even if they do, his ceiling is proven mediocre. Schultz was the 108th overall player as the No. 2 or No. 3 target during Stroud's elite run in 2023. That's essentially the ceiling.
168. QB22 Daniel Jones
169. QB23 Kirk Cousins - The upside is limited even when he's fully healthy, but there are too many risks to ignore heading into 2024. The Falcons clearly value the idea of Michael Penix, so if anything goes off track with Cousins, they at least have a high-end backup plan. That becomes extra worrisome as we head into the fantasy playoffs. But even before then, Cousins is returning from a torn achilles and he's not a QB that can afford to lose any athletic ability. He's a rhythm passer who uses his entire body to make throws because he's not overwhelmingly strong. Cousins with 10% less zip on his passes doesn't sound great to me, especially if he's compromised moving in the pocket. There are simply too many dual-threat starting QBs nowadays to spend a pick on this profile. We only get 2-3 QB picks each best ball draft.
170. TE21 Colby Parkinson - Tyler Higbee will start on PUP after tearing his ACL and MCL in the NFL Playoffs, and it's unclear if the Rams are just totally done with him already. They drafted Davis Allen and played him down the stretch, but Allen (6'5"/245 with a 4.84 forty) was more of an in-line TE (76% snaps) than a true receiving threat (2.3 aDOT). This offseason, the Rams gave Colby Parkinson (6'7"/252 with a 4.77 forty) a 2-year contract with $15M in practical guarantees. That's starter money. He was buried in a 3-TE rotation with the Seahawks previously, but Parkinson has the deep sleeper profile I love. He had a 19% receiving share as a true junior at Stanford, then played in the slot or out wide on 46% of his Seahawks' snaps last year. Parkinson could be a full-time player for the first time of his career, and Matthew Stafford still looked really good when healthy last season. There is a path to 600 yards and 6 TDs here.
171. TE22 Ben Sinnott - Consensus NFL Draft rankings had Sinnott as the TE3 and 87th overall player. Do we really want to fully re-set expectations because the (checks notes) Washington Commanders drafted him far earlier than expected? Plus, Sinnott had some Irv Smith H-back and fullback vibes in college. It wouldn't be surprising if he needed grooming time as a rookie. It's a big leap for him, and even if he's ready, the Commanders project for the 26th-most points in 2024.
172. RB54 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
173. RB55 Dameon Pierce
174. RB56 Bucky Irving - There's no doubt that Irving will get snaps as a rookie. His competition is Chase Edmonds after all, but Irving's size and athletic profile are underwhelming and likely limit his ceiling. He is a solid between-tackles rusher for his lackluster size, however, and he be a check-down artist out in space. The Bucs' new play caller comes from the Sean McVay tree, meaning he's likely to stick with one foundation back rather than form a worthwhile committee. I'm selling his flex appeal on a mediocre offense. There are others with more contingent upside in this range, too. Expect him to be more useful for the real life football team.
175. RB57 Tank Bigsby
176. RB58 Antonio Gibson
177. RB59 Audric Estime - Sean Payton seems to love "his guys" more than most coaches, which is why he's brought in 4 different RBs since taking the job three offseasons ago. Most notably, Payton wasn't around for the Javonte Williams selection and has only seen him put up -20% fantasy points over expected in 2023 after he returned from his multi-ligament knee tear. If Javonte is never the same or gets injured, the Broncos will need a between-tackles rusher. Enter 4th-round rookie Audric Estime, who is a 20-year-old early-declare from Notre Dame with plenty of on-field production. Estime is thicc with the upside for goal-line touchdowns if given the opportunity. I'm not convinced August cut-candidate Samaje Perine or 185-pound gadget back Jaleel McLaughlin are necessarily competing for this specific role, even if they are useful in other areas.
178. RB60 Jaleel McLaughlin - A Sean Payton fantasy can only get you so far. McLaughlin is 187 pounds with only 2 games over 20 offensive snaps. Those are tough to overcome in half PPR, especially with Audric Estime around for Javonte Williams' insurance.
179. RB61 Jaylen Wright - The stylistic fit was perfect, but the lack of projected touches hurts Wright's odds of rookie production after Raheem Mostert was given more guaranteed money this offseason.
180. WR74 Demario Douglas - Smol slot in half PPR best ball.
181. WR75 Wan'Dale Robinson - Smol slot in half PPR best ball.
182. WR76 Ricky Pearsall - Smol slot in half PPR best ball.
183. WR77 Jalen Tolbert
184. WR78 Jalen McMillan
185. QB24 Baker Mayfield
186. QB25 Bo Nix - I was one of the few who gave Nix a 1st-round grade ahead of the NFL Draft because he is a quick (smart) decision-maker who can also extend plays with his under-appreciated athleticism. It's a great stylistic pairing with Sean Payton, who is likely going to give Nix the entire season to start. If given an entire season, it'll be hard for Nix to not luck into some random top-12 QB weeks (even Bryce Young did so twice last year), especially if we consider how much rushing Nix did in college. Nix ran for 20 TDs in 27 Oregon contests, averaging 27.5 rushing yards per game including the negatives for sacks. That's a lot of fantasy production on the ground, not to mention his 300 passing yards per game. The narrative around Nix has approached meme level with most reaching the same conclusion that he's an auto-bust. Is that likely? Sure. Does Nix have paths to a fantasy profile too? I'd argue so.
187. QB26 Will Levis
188. QB27 Sam Darnold - He's a slight favorite for early-season starts while JJ McCarthy develops. His play will dictate how many starts he actually gets. It's his best setup for success of his NFL career.
189. TE23 Jonnu Smith
190. TE24 Cole Kmet - You don't throw the ball to Kmet when you have D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.
191. QB28 Bryce Young - We debated his rookie tape here.
192. QB29 Drake Maye - He's really young and fairly inexperienced, which explains why he was up and down as a college star. It also makes him a candidate to cede early-season starts to Jacoby Brissett (who is solid!!!) while the Patriots' new-look offense holds in-season tryouts at OL and WR. New England's first four games are tough (@CIN, SEA, @NYJ, @SF) and they don't have a bye until Week 14, so there's some possibility we don't see him for a bit. That said, when he's deemed the starter, we can have some fun. Maye finished 1st and 4th in first downs on scrambles in all of college football over the last two seasons, and last year's 52% first down rate on his scrambles was the 2nd best, too, so he's not doing it recklessly. Maye has feel for when to take off and the athletic traits to finish off runs. Just stay patient.
193. QB30 Russell Wilson - The Steelers didn't wait long to sign Russell Wilson in the offseason, then waited a very long time to trade a Day 3 pick for Justin Fields. That alone is a sign of who is the projected starter. Since then, the front office and coaching staff have routinely said it's Wilson's job to lose, and the beat reporters have suggested the same thing after watching OTAs and mini camp. Like many players, Russ's 2023 tape has been memed to death. He's obviously not the same player he was, nor will he ever be, but Russ is still a top-25 NFL starter to me. His deep ball is still above average and is a scheme fit with an under-center play-action offense, and Russ can still move around more than others. Fields would be a fun story if he took over late in the year (you have permission to draft him in Round 18 in these huge best ball tournaments), but the Steelers are projected for 8.5 wins and likely will be in the NFL Playoffs mix when the fantasy playoffs start. If forced to lay odds, I'd say Wilson is benched for non-health reasons only 25% of the time this year. That's a worthwhile risk if it means I can add correlation to my George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth teams. Russ had weekly finishes of QB3, QB7, QB9, QB11, QB11, and QB12 in last year's train wreck season.
194. WR79 Jalin Hyatt
195. WR80 Jermaine Burton - Tee Higgins has very low odds of being traded, but Burton has the skills to be a presence as the third target in the offense. With better maturity, Burton likely goes top-40 overall and the Bengals' support staff and locker room are a nice match to keep him on track. He's a solid deep threat receiver in terms of speed, ball-tracking, and hands. There were also times where his breaking routes and physicality in yards after catch situations had me dreaming of an underrated full-route tree upside. I'm willing to eff around and find out on this profile attached to Joe Burrow. Just watch some of these reps in our video below:
196. WR81 Odell Beckham Jr. - The Ravens slow-played his return from injury and never made him a full-time player during his age-31 season, but Odell was quietly decent on a per-route basis. He was the WR30 in composite score versus man coverage and would've performed better if not missed by Lamar Jackson on a few downfield opportunities. The numbers tell that same story. OBJ was only in the 53rd percentile in first downs per route, yet was in the 81st percentile in PFF grade and in the 86th percentile in yards per route. The Dolphins also rotate their WRs to keep them fresh, but I'm taking Odell more seriously than others as a Round 17-18 dart throw. There's at least contingent upside if something ever happened to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.
197. WR82 Cedric Tillman - The Browns' 3-WR set is best as Tillman (X), Cooper (Z), and Jeudy (slot) with Elijah Moore as a manufactured touch backup.
198. RB55 Kimani Vidal - The competition for touches is Gus Edwards ($3.3M guaranteed) and JK Dobbins ($50k guaranteed), and we know there will be a ton of touches, many of them high value thanks to Justin Herbert. Vidal is only a 6th-round pick, but he at least has the size (5'8"/213), athleticism (4.46 forty, 59th percentile three cone), and production (133 total yards per game as a senior) of the classic deep sleeper. Vidal caught 18+ passes in all four college years, so there's an especially easy path to sneaking onto passing downs. That's all we need in Round 16 or so.
199. RB56 Alexander Mattison
200. RB57 A.J. Dillon
201. RB58 Trey Sermon - Nobody had a bigger June and July.
202. RB59 Roschon Johnson
203. RB60 Will Shipley - His primary competition for insurance touches behind Saquon Barkley is Kenneth Gainwell, who was dead last out of 52 qualifiers in PFF grade last season. Shipley has mini Ekeler vibes as an undersized RB who specializes as a receiver but has experience in goal line situations:
204. RB61 Elijah Mitchell - I was catching up on OTAs news, and this 49ers column from the respected Matt Maiocco went over their plans of slightly reducing Christian McCaffrey's workload this upcoming season. The entire column failed to bring up the 4th-round rookie's name. It was all about Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason, both of whomsth know the offense. Kyle Shanahan also noted that Guerendo is generally inexperienced. I've seen how this story ends as a rookie, which is why I'm heavily targeting Mitchell in the last rounds.
205. RB62 Deneric Prince
206. QB31 Justin Fields
207. QB32 Derek Carr
208. QB33 J.J. McCarthy
209. TE25 Cade Otton
210. TE26 Isaiah Likely
211. TE27 Dawson Knox
212. QB34 Aidan O'Connell
213. WR83 Johnny Wilson
214. WR84 Van Jefferson
215. WR85 Jalen Nailor
216. WR86 Greg Dortch - The streets are fitting him for a gold jacket, and I understand why. Dortch is too small for outside reps, but he is frisky in 3-WR sets, especially next to physical WRs and TEs. That's exactly the Cardinals formula on paper with Marvin Harrison Jr. (X), Michael Wilson or Zay Jones (Z), and Trey McBride (TE) towering over Dortch underneath. Last year, Dortch was in the 83rd percentile in composite score vs. man coverage. Wilson was at 19th percentile. Current Falcon Rondale Moore, 16th percentile. If you want to prioritize Dortch in the last round of best ball tournaments, then this is statistical evidence to continue doing so. Worse case, we'll have fun tweeting about how good Dortch is.
217. WR87 Roman Wilson - He profiles as a slot player in 3-WR sets, but Wilson did play in 2-WR sets at Michigan because he has the 4.39 speed to win on deep crossing routes off of play-action. That's exactly what he'll be asked to do in the Steelers' under-center play-action offense. Wilson's primary competition for snaps all signed contracts with $0 to $167k in guaranteed money (Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, Denzel Mims, Marquez Callaway). It's really just him versus manufactured touch slot Calvin Austin. Wilson is just way better than him.
218. WR88 Ray-Ray McCloud - Somehow starting in 3-WR sets for the Falcons.
219. WR89 Kalif Raymond - The Lions are fully expecting Jameson Williams (who is mostly a one-trick pony) to be thrust into 2-WR sets this year, but the Lions will need another receiver to step up in 3-WR sets and potentially in 2-WR sets if Jamo proves unready. Raymond, at times, has flashed some interesting things. He was in the 48th percentile among all receivers in yards per route against man coverage last year and finished the year with a shockingly-high 2.1 yards per route average on all of his routes. Raymond was at 1.9 YPRR in 2022, too. He's a quick underneath option with Amon-Ra contingent upside and has been productive enough to project for 3-WR sets in Week 1. When Jared Goff was asked about Raymond, he said, "It's been invaluable (to have him). I can trust him any time he's in there at receiver at any spot and I know he's an electric returner, but he's done a great job at everything and I'm appreciative to have him on our team."
220. WR90 Josh Reynolds - A 2-year, $9M deal with $4.5M guaranteed is enough to project him for a healthy amount of snaps on the perimeter. We'll see how ready 4th-round rookie Troy Franklin and undersized slot Marvin Mims are for full-time snaps. Expect Reynolds to play more than you'd think.
221. WR91 Treylon Burks
222. WR92 Darius Slayton - The upside is relatively low, but Slayton has an $8.1M cap hit and has the ability to play X receiver, where Z/slot Jalin Hyatt and slot-only Wan'Dale Robinson can't play. The offense will revolve around moving Malik Nabers around the field, but Slayton will see some downfield opportunities. It's a bonus that Slayton is largely undrafted with two-straight years of nice efficiency. He had +20% and +40% fantasy points over expected despite playing in unwatchable offenses.
